No “axis shift” for Türkiye, but economic benefit!

Deputy Director of Üsküdar University’s Political Psychology Center Dr. Güler Kalay, evaluating the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit attended by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, stated that the summit opened a window of opportunity for Türkiye, offering important economic and strategic gains without creating the perception of an “axis shift.”

Dr. Kalay underlined that the most important message of the summit was linking discourse to concrete tools, adding: “Türkiye’s intense engagement with the SCO will not turn into a platform conflicting with NATO/EU, but into a complementary one that maximizes economic and logistical benefits.”

Deputy Director of Üsküdar University’s Political Psychology Center Dr. Güler Kalay evaluated the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit recently attended by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Türkiye can create opportunities without triggering an “axis shift” perception

Referring to the summit held in Tianjin (Aug 31 – Sept 1, 2025), which highlighted the vision of “a new security and economic order prioritizing the Global South” and conveyed the message that global governance is at a crossroads, Dr. Güler Kalay said: “Türkiye’s high-level participation, thanks to the flexibility provided by its ‘dialogue partner’ status, will increase its capacity to set agendas at Asia-centered tables without contradicting its own alliance commitments. This framework is in line with Ankara’s long-standing strategy of diversification. It can enable a measured approach that seeks to multiply Asia-focused trade, logistics, and supply chain gains without triggering the perception of an ‘axis shift’ in relations with the West.”

The key message of the summit: linking discourse to concrete tools

Emphasizing that the most important message of the summit was linking discourse to tangible instruments, Dr. Güler Kalay said: “The planned SCO development financing, energy cooperation, and satellite-digital infrastructure initiatives show that the Belt and Road and the Middle Corridor can converge at a point of complementarity. On this basis, Türkiye can gain weight at the negotiation table with concrete files such as Middle Corridor 2.0 (BTK capacity, single-window customs, block train schedules) and joint production in selected sectors (batteries, solar/grid equipment). In this way, Türkiye’s intense interaction with the SCO becomes a complementary platform that maximizes economic-logistical benefits rather than conflicting with NATO/EU.”

Attention to three sensitive balances

Dr. Güler Kalay stated that three sensitive balances would come to the fore, and continued: “First, not fueling the perception of ‘bloc formation/axis shift’ in Western capitals; second, managing the chronic trade deficit with China not only through market access but also through localization and reciprocal standards/quota facilitation; and finally, knowing that ‘dialogue partner’ status does not entail binding decision-making authority, thus channeling expectations toward goal-oriented projects. In this way, the SCO’s 25th Summit’s call for a new Global South-centered order can be transformed into a strategic opportunity for Türkiye, extending from discourse to implementation, compatible with the West, and measurable through tangible gains.”

Türkiye’s visibility in the middle corridor is increasing

Dr. Kalay noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s statement, “We must continue to take a clear stand against hegemonism and power politics and practice genuine multilateralism,” pointed to a multipolar international system, and added: “In this context, key opportunities arise for Türkiye, such as access to financing and technology tools, the creation of alternative channels for infrastructure and logistics digitalization, and becoming a leverage in connectivity. As Türkiye’s visibility in the Middle Corridor grows as a connectivity leverage, it can also be foreseen that it will gain the chance to consolidate its claim of being a hub in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects.”

As a “dialogue partner,” Türkiye will be at the table in the organization’s reshaping

Dr. Güler Kalay stated that the emphasis on “global governance” highlighted at the summit also pointed to the fact that all countries within the SCO, regardless of their position, would have equal authority, and continued: “In this context, Türkiye as a ‘Dialogue Partner’ will be at the table in the reshaping of the organization, while also keeping multiple diplomacy channels active through bilateral meetings. This multi-track diplomacy and leader-level contact are important for balancing imports and exports between China and Türkiye. According to data, in 2024 Türkiye’s imports from China were around 45 billion dollars, while exports to China were in the range of 3–4 billion dollars. This distant imbalance can be addressed through increased joint production and market access. Primarily, concrete cooperation in energy, transportation, and digital infrastructure sectors, supported through diplomacy, will accelerate sectoral growth.”

Türkiye’s central leverage role in the Middle Corridor

Deputy Director of the Political Psychology Center Dr. Güler Kalay recalled that the integration of the BRI and the Middle Corridor (BTK + Marmaray) ceased to be symbolic and became a physical reality in 2019, when the first China–Europe block train passed through Marmaray, and added: “After 2022, geopolitical shifts increased interest in the Trans-Caspian (Middle Corridor) route. While the OECD acknowledges the potential of the corridor, it also points to persistent bottlenecks at crossing points and in customs-digitalization. Türkiye can strengthen its claim of being a ‘complementary corridor, not an alternative to the BRI’ by expanding capacity, single-window customs, and pre-declaration practices. The effective implementation of these practices along the China–Central Asia–Türkiye line will significantly reduce slowing problems in train/road flows caused by planning, permits, and customs waiting times, thereby increasing Türkiye’s central leverage role in the Middle Corridor.”

Ankara’s ability to set agendas at Asia-centered platforms has materialized

On the other hand, Dr. Kalay emphasized that Türkiye’s representation at the SCO’s 25th Summit expanded its multi-track diplomacy capacity by enabling simultaneous and bilateral engagements with multiple critical actors under the same roof, and concluded: “This environment nurtures regional mediation and connectivity skills, while concretizing Ankara’s ability to set agendas at Asia-centered platforms without contradicting its alliance commitments.”